LOS ANGELES – Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home and business-closure orders were extended Friday to May 15, with health officials saying that while physical-distancing requirements have dramatically slowed the spread of coronavirus, lifting them now could lead to nearly 96% of the population being infected by August.
The orders had been set to expire April 19.
Citing a detailed analysis of cases to date and modeling of future case projections, county health officials said the numbers show that existing social-distancing practices have “flattened the curve” of infections. But lifting the stay-at-home requirements and business closures would quickly reverse that trend.
“If you were to reduce physical distancing to the pre-health officer order levels, virtually all individuals in Los Angeles County, 95.6% per the model, would be infected by the pandemic by Aug. 1, 2020,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county’s director of health services. “That number is starkly reduced, down to about 30%, if we maintain the current levels of physical distancing.
“If we’re able to increase the level of physical distancing — people are able to remain at home more than they are today — then we could reduce the number of infected individuals even further, down to an estimated 5.5%,” she said.
The county health orders were implemented in mid-March, requiring people to stay at home as much as possible and to avoid large public gatherings. The orders also shuttered non-essential businesses, leaving only retailers such as grocery stores, restaurants, pharmacies and other outlets open.
The orders were issued in an effort to limit human interaction, particularly in response to the ability of people to transmit COVID-19 to others even before they know they are infected with the virus.
“Physical distancing is working,” Ghaly said, pointing to projections showing there would have been a sharp rise in cases if such measures had never been implemented. “… It has worked to date and it is working now, and it is important that physical distancing remain in place … to reduce not just the strain on the hospital system but to reduce the number of infections.
“… What we need to do is continue to slow the acceleration of the virus and make sure we are limiting its impact on society, limiting the infections,” she said.
Dr. Roger Lewis, director of emergency medicine at Harbor UCLA Medical Center and head of the county Department of Health Services’ hospital “demand-modeling” efforts, said that while there remains a “tremendous amount of uncertainty” about the virus’ spread, current projections show the county should have adequate hospital space to handle future patients. He noted that only about 3% of people who test positive for the virus will require hospitalization. Lewis said roughly 1% of those people will require intensive-care unit treatment, which could potential run short if cases spike upward and no additional efforts are made to add ICU beds.
He said if physical-distancing efforts continue, it will have a dramatic impact on hospital demand. But he also warned that it remains possible that more stringent social-distancing measures might ultimately be needed.
“We know that physical distancing has taken a tremendous toll on our entire community, and that some of us are tragically mourning the loss of loved ones due to the COVID-19 epidemic,” Lewis said. “Moreover, there remains substantial risk that the need for hospital-based services will exceed the system capacity — even by large margins — if there is any reduction in our physical-distancing behavior and other public health control efforts.
“Current data suggests that physical-distancing and public health directives have clearly slowed the spread of the epidemic and that has gained us valuable time to prepare for what lies ahead,” he said. “However, it remains likely that the current measures are not sufficient to lead to a reduction in illness over times, and that more effective measures will be required.”
Along those lines, the county public health director, Barbara Ferrer, said that beginning Wednesday, essential businesses that remain open will be required to provide cloth face coverings to all employees who interact with other employees or the general public. Businesses also must develop and publicly post a plan for meeting social-distancing and cleaning requirements in the workplace, Ferrer said.
The county will also require the general public to wear face coverings when mingling with other people outside the home, and when going into a business.
Some of those new requirements mirror ones that took effect in many individual cities, including Los Angeles, on Friday.
While the public health orders will remain in place until May 15, officials could not provide any insight on whether they will actually end at that point, saying they will simply have to reevaluate the situation at that time. The orders, however, could easily extend into the summer months depending on the virus’ rate of spread.
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Trumpist#1 says
Veteran 2:
I persecute Christians? Wow, that just demonstrates what a oversensitive snowflake you are. Just irrational hate for everything Trump, including the truth. When you hear facts you don’t like you just scream racist, Christian persecutor, etc.
BTW: Are you that person that turned your back on your religion and gender and transitioned into a Christian woman?
Cathy says
Restaurants are closed – not open as this and another article reported. Check your facts before publishing and do a spell check.
Joshua Milks says
Umm… Lol. I love when people post trying to correct someone incorrectly. Some restaurants have closed for the safety of their staff. Most restaurants are still open for take out or delivery.
Crossroads says
All lies get out of your Bubble people stop believing a lie
Mark says
I’m not a public health expert, but the number seems entirely reasonable. There are about 10.04M people in LA County as of 2019, 96% means almost 9.8M infected. Before distancing we would see hundreds if not thousands of people on a daily basis–at gas stations, grocery stores, theme parks, churches, gyms, work, etc. Those hundreds see hundreds and those hundreds see hundreds and before we can even react a virus that emerged in provincial China hit Hollywood Blvd. Following distancing guidelines is still the wisest path forward whilst we wait for a vaccine.
Orlando says
96% of the la county population would be infected? What model are they using? There is no evidence of any out break like that anywhere. That’s 12 million people, more than the global numbers. Scaring people to stay home. Trust me, I don’t want anyone to be infected but this is a crazy number.
Magnetlady says
When China told their people to go ”Back to Work”, many were seen wearing masks & gloves for their protection. I don’t see China telling anyone Quarantine anymore… We need to be RESPONSIBLE & do what we should be doing in the first place.. Protect Yourself, wash your hands frequently & cover your mouth when sneezing or coughing, it’s just COMMON SENSE.. We cannot sustain this ”Stay-At-Home” order much longer or we will not have a ”Country” to come back to… We should allow cities that don’t have a lot of cases to resume their business…They don’t want to go out of business, the want their employee’s back & doing what they did before…LET’S GET BACK TO NORMAL SOON!!
Ann says
China has been deceitful about this since day 1. Mayor Parris is a Communist Chinese apologist and has also lied. When will we wake up and refuse China and Parris? They are a deceitful duo.
Trumpist#1 says
Agree 1000% Ann. I still have suspicions that the Chinese Communists did this purposely because Trump had us winning the geopolitical competition for a change. Obama, Bush 41, Clinton and Bush 45 let China have their way for over 40 years.
Parris is a lowlife PI attorney, bottom feeder and ambulance chaser. How could anyone vote for someone like him without morals?
Van Dammit says
Parris puts Communist China and his personal gain above his own city and country. He is in bed with the Communists Chinese. Wake up Lancaster and dump him!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jzl says
This will not end well unless we build herd immunity. A vaccine is too far away to be a viable prerequisite for ending the lockdowns given the economic and social toll that extending the lockdown will exact. It has been demonstrated statistically, the vast majority of those that contract will survive this illness without hospitalization. Our health services have shown that we have the capacity for a surge in hospitalization if we need it. Treatments like hydroxychloroquine are further reducing the need for hospitalization.
By keeping that portion of the population that can build herd immunity sequestered, we risk extending the duration of the pandemic and further damaging society. The government should focus on protecting the truly vulnerable as well as developing and financing the deployment of measures to get the country back to their lives safely. Countries like Sweden who chose not to employ the more draconian measures are proving that they do little to prevent the spread. Therefore, keeping people at home is ineffective and likely to create more harm than it prevents.
Laughing says
In reply to JZL
You are correct and the lock downs are part of the solution.
They are not preventing the spread, just slowing it down so that hospitals can stay on top of the work load. Also mortuaries.
That is the flattening of the curve, which also lengthens the time span.
This is not going away any time soon. China just reported a resurgence of cases after ending part of the lock down. Like when people came out of the quarantines and spread it.
The economy will be fine. In the long run, just like after the great recession. All things pass.
Really says
Doctors and nurses are thankful for the Chinese families that have been donating face masks. the truth is that China and the U.S. are bound together in too many ways to mention. The facts are easy enough gather. Sweeping generalizations are the easy way out, and takes no thought.
Really Really says
Really?!
Veteran says
Rex and the Communist Chinese are bound together. No one will argue that. Is it good for the AV or our country? The Communist Chinese love the fact that they have a useful idiot in Rex who has allowed them to set up in an area that contains the country’s most important and sensitive national defense work.
Those facts are easy to gather. Google Chinese espionage and you will see what they are up to.
Rex is either a complete traitor or a complete fool. Maybe both.
Trumpist#1 says
The Chinese people are good and smart, but the Communist Party wants us (as in U.S.) to crash and burn. They steal our secrets and plan our demise. They spread divisive propaganda throughout our media.
The CCP runs sconcentration camps and persecutes Christians. The shameless bullies routinely steal sovereignty over other nations’ exclusive economic zones. They hid data which inflicted this coronavirus death and economic pain on us.
The Chinese people do not have political, religious or press freedom. Do we want to live like that? To let them near our defense contractors and Edwards is lunacy. Don’t apologize for them (CCP) unless you work for the Global Times or Confucius Institutes. Are you registered as a foreign agent?
Veteran 2 says
Trumpist: You persecute Christians that have made simple non-threatening statements on this forum. Maybe in reality you’re a communist Chinese person pretending to be an upright moral person. Trump does business with the communist Chinese.
Veteran 2 says
Have you ever heard of Intel? You’re so focused on Parris that you can’t see what is going on in the state of California, and the entire U.S. when it comes to China. Obviously you have a computer, so maybe all the comments from people using computers might think about how you’re contributing by purchasing communist Chinese STUFF.
Infodemic says
Have you ever heard of CalPERS? California public pension fund investing in blacklisted Chinese companies? Is the Governor of every state either stupid or a traitor? How about all the medical equipment that is imported from China? The tariff war with China isn’t about Trump cutting off China, just increasing tariff. Maybe it’s the voters fault for electing these politicians. I didn’t vote for Rex Parris but I can surely see beyond just Lancaster to get the bigger picture.
Chairman Mao says
The Communist Chinese have no business being in the AV. Shame on Rex for putting his own personal gain in front of our country. Maybe that is how he was able to buy his second beach house.
Joshua Milks says
This is how viruses work. People think just social distancing works. However in Los Angeles, social distancing doesn’t do the trick if the distancing is impossible to obtain. We are far too dense where without the stay at home order, if you even walk down your sidewalk, you’ll walk past two to three groups of people or more on each side of the street each block. If you go to busier streets this turns into 20-30 groups of people. Gloves and face masks are only to help and do not stop the spread altogether. The stay at home order is necessary to remain proactive to stop the spread before it gets worse. We could have been done with this much faster if idiots stopped going out such as when the beaches were packed our first weekend on the stay home order. People are forgetting that most people don’t show symptoms, but can still spread it. Any animal they touch, grocery item they touch, door they touch, etc. will spread the virus to you if you touch it within a few hours. The spread of viruses is exponential and without a stay at home order, nearly all of LA comes in contact with one another – hence the need for the order.